As the telecom industry hits a customer penetration of 60% and struggles with revenues at an ARPU of less than three dollars, Marylou Andrew talks to the five telecom companies about the challenges and opportunities ahead.
MARYLOU ANDREW: Having acquired 95 million customers, is the telecom market reaching saturation level and if so, how will brands evolve?
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| Akbar Khan, CMO, Ufone |
AKBAR KHAN: The industry is not reaching saturation level. Although telecom penetration in Pakistan is over 60%, it has crossed the 200% mark in the developed world. In a market like ours where a SIM costs between two and 2.5 dollars, there is a long way to go before we reach saturation point. Of the 95 million SIMs out there, many are dual and at best there are 60 to 65 million unique customers. It’s not about how many connections you have, but about which operator has the highest number of primary SIM connections. The industry’s annual revenue pie is US$ 3.2 billion and a one percent shift (up or down) in the BUMO (Brand Used Most Often) indicator is equivalent to US$ 320 million. Our target is to grow that number every month. The revenue growth rate may be going down from triple to lower double digits, but customer base penetration is not. Having said this, brands have to evolve and the focus has shifted from acquisition to moving into untapped segments and markets.
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| Lars Christian Iuel, VP/CMO, Telenor |
LARS CHRISTIAN IUEL: I don’t think the market is saturated; it is becoming more mature. Brands have been very focused on price and on awareness, but they will have to evolve because anyone can match price. To make a sustainable difference you have to connect emotionally with your customers and support that with functional attributes. Price, quality of network and customer service are not sustainable differentiators.
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| Muneer Farooqui, CEO, Warid |
MUNEER FAROOQUI: It is not saturated, it is maturing. There is potential, but realising it is harder because the long hanging fruit has been picked and cashed in. At Warid the differentiating factor is quality. As with any other commodity (and telecom has become a commodity), when customers have options they base their decisions on the best quality and price. The price wars will fade away; price elasticity has been stretched to its limit.
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Sadia Khurram, Director Marketing,
Brand and Operations, Mobilink
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SADIA KHURRAM: The industry is not saturated, rather growth has slowed down. Given that all five operators are vying for the same customers, the value proposition that we put to our customers needs to evolve. The challenge used to be to make our product available everywhere, expand our coverage and offer the cheapest call rate; now that everyone is on the same bandwagon, differentiation has to set in, otherwise we will become commodities and the opportunity to create value for the company and the customer will diminish. We are at a point in the industry’s lifecycle, when brands will really start playing their role.
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Salman A. Wassay
Director Marketing, Zong
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SALMAN WASSAY: Saturation is a misnomer; the great growth has slowed down and we need to unlock new
segments; in the past there was an inherent demand for the product, now we have to search for it. Every year, between two to 2.5 million people reach the age bracket where they can own a mobile; the rural market is untapped as are women, hardly 20 to 22% of customers are women. As the product evolves, the brands will evolve as well.
MLA: How will the evolution of brands impact the way they are marketed and advertised?
AK: Through segmentation, with the focus shifting to service quality and brand equity. This used to be a suppliers’ market, but now the competition has increased to levels where customers have more choice. Promotional headline based pricing is too tactical, advertising will have to become more emotive. Although we are still trying to mix the two, the proportion of the emotive will increase.
LCI: I don’t think there will be any more price-based communication. We will not be able to deliver the same message to everyone; there will be more targeted communication based on micro segmentation and the behaviour and attitude of the customers. There will be less focus on awareness activities and a lot more on direct communication, be it in-shop or one-on-one and it will be much more emotional and value-based. Our products will become more than telecom brands. Five years from now if anyone in the industry sees themselves as being in the telecom industry, their future will be bleak; we will be embracing more than traditional telecom services.
MF: The game has moved into retention mode. This market is still pure vanilla voice, and the question is how to move forward. Providing quality service, more VAS and data solutions is where the changes will be and marketing will reflect that. If we are not promoting price, we will be promoting retention as well as other products.
SK: Right now most advertising is performing a hardcore selling job. However, the value of a product is not only monetary, it is also a function of the experience; in our case this would be the quality of the network and the signal and the choice of VAS.
SW: Customers have become insensitive to price advertising. In 2010, I see a lot of brand positioning that will not be price centric. Mobiles used to be ‘send-end’ gadgets; people made calls and that was it, but now that we have better data networks, greater awareness and easier to use products, the mobile phone has become more than a talking tool and as a result the product positioning is changing too.
MLA: Will ‘voice’ continue to be the major revenue earner? What other areas will you derive ARPU from in the next few years?
AK: Eighty to 85% of the industry’s revenue comes from voice and this will continue for the next three years or so. However, the mix will change slightly; if on average 15% is coming from non-voice revenue streams, that percentage may go up to 20 or 25%, while new streams, such as mobile commerce, mobile advertising and VAS will start contributing more. However, those numbers will, at best, improve by five percent in the next three to five years.
LCI: Over 90% of the revenue is coming from voice and SMS and even five years from now this is what will be paying our bills; after that we will see growth in other areas. In Kenya, 50% of the adult population only uses services such as mobile accounts and mobile commerce. Other African countries have leapfrogged straight into mobile internet. This is where the growth will come from.
MN: The composition of the revenue streams will remain the same in the immediate future. After voice, VAS comes next with seven to 10% of the revenue share. Warid has the biggest bouquet of VAS, but this can be confusing for the end user because other telecoms have similar services too. The challenge is to figure out which VAS are giving consumers a real benefit.
SK: Voice will continue to be the revenue generator for telecom companies in Pakistan, but ARPUs are stabilising at approximately three dollars, so it is important that we continue to offer other VAS to our customers and build parallel revenue streams.
SW: This scenario is the same around the world, although in terms of data we are not where we should be. We should derive at least 25% of our revenues from non-voice services and the industry has not gone beyond 11%. Zong gets about 15% of its revenue from non-voice. Two things are going to change. Firstly, if the Pakistan Telecommunications Authority (PTA) launches 3G or any other fast data transmitting technology there will then be applications that are easier to use on mobile phones. Secondly, a lot of data savvy younger people are buying mobiles so that end of the customer base is increasing.
MLA: How has the telecom companies’ investment in broadband and WiMax affected their core business and what is the potential here?
AK: We want to work closely with the Pakistan Telecommunications Company (PTCL) in order to offer broadband to our customers. This will complement our core business because if you offer more services the stickiness improves. As a bundle we can offer more to customers because we don’t have to make margins on a single product; the consumer pays less and is retained longer.
LCI: Mobile internet is a generic term for all kinds of technological solutions and the mobile handset is the best terminal to start with because the penetration is very good geographically. The existing GSM-based technology is already good enough and we believe it should be based on a mobile handset.
MF: This area is going to become more competitive. Obviously a mobile phone cannot offer the same kind of data speed that a WiMax connection can, but if you are on the go you probably will not mind having it on your phone even if it is slightly slower.
SK: It is a good complement to our core business. There are handsets that offer WiMax functionality and this is a feature that will make Mobilink a complete solutions provider for the communication needs of our customers.
SW: This is a question that most companies do not have a clear cut answer to, the reason being that typically a GSM organisation worldwide would take the data route through 3G. We have not launched 3G in Pakistan and there is an opportunity here because apart from PTCL, there is no other strong, nationwide broadband provider. WiMax has potential and companies which have invested in it will not see losses, but how it will fare against 3G and other technologies is questionable. Pakistan is not a country where any one technology will make the difference; it will have to be a mix of technologies for different areas.
MLA: What practical measures need to be taken to realise the potential of mobile commerce in Pakistan?
AK: The mobile commerce success stories have come from the Third World and developing countries because they have a huge population of un-banked customers. In Pakistan too, there is a big upside to this in the long run; however, there is no magic bullet that will bring about a change in one or two quarters or even in a year. The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is very progressive and that is a blessing and the PTA has been very positive and upbeat in sponsoring change. However, mobile banking is a marriage between telecoms and banks; while telecom is a very flexible and fast moving industry, banks move at a different pace. Their processes are opposite to ours and one of the reasons that movement is slow is because of the different pace between the two.
LCI: This service has huge potential because only 12% of the population has access to, or use, financial services. The SBP is very proactive in promoting mobile commerce. With the high penetration of mobile handsets and SIM cards in Pakistan, we are equipped with all the resources, be it to pay bills, transfer money, seek information or have cash in a mobile account. The most expensive part of running a bank is the branch network. Today every branch in Pakistan has 20,000 customers which makes things very inefficient because there are long queues, etc. With easypaisa we already have 150,000 outlets and this makes the footprint for us and for our customers much wider and less costly. Since we launched easypaisa we have had more than a million transactions worth over three billion rupees, so we see potential for ourselves, for Pakistan and the Pakistani people.
MF: M-commerce used to be a buzzword only, now it is a reality. It will make a difference to the economy because it will serve the un-banked population. We see a clear demarcation in mobile commerce between mobile banking and non-banking services such as utility payments, point of sale payments, etc. It will take time to evolve because the end users have to be comfortable with the technology, so education is required. It also has to be industry neutral. It helps that we have Bank Alfalah as a sister concern and we are working with Alfalah and other banks on the platforms that serve these products.
SK: The regulators on both the financial and telecom side are gung-ho about the opportunities that mobile commerce can unfold. Only 12% of the people in Pakistan have access to banking services, whereas the penetration for cellular services is about 60%, so there is a gap of at least 48%. It might take time to reach the same level as telecom penetration because this is a technology-intensive product and people here are not very tech savvy. The uptake of SMS was quite slow in the earlier years, however now even illiterate people are using it. Once a critical mass builds up for mobile commerce it will take off very quickly.
SW: The problem is that this is a huge un-banked economy with only 17 million unique accounts. For a number of reasons – one of them is religious – people do not open bank accounts. If we can convince the huge mobile community that opening a branchless bank account will benefit them, that will be a paradigm shift in terms of banking. The other thing we are trying to address is carrying cash, because plastic is not very successful here. We would have preferred for the model to be telecom-led but the model we see today is bank-led, and with good reason because the SBP did not want to open up everything. The industry spent too much time fighting over whether telecom companies could open banks – there is obviously a good case here as well because these telecom companies have invested billions of dollars in this industry. Currently the customer ownership in mobile commerce belongs to the bank and not the telecom company. These are the nitty gritties that need to be resolved. PTA and the SBP are trying to bring in third party transaction processing companies and the telecom companies and the banks will be asked to connect to those third parties. This will expand the market.
MLA: There are widespread rumours of a possible merger. Does the telecom industry need a merger and if it does happen, how will it impact brands?
AK: This market needs consolidation because that is when economies of scale come in, which enable investments to remain healthy. Margins and ARPUs are decreasing while costs are going up in terms of manpower, electricity, load shedding, fuel, taxes, etc. If there is a consolidation, the interconnect cost between the two merging networks will be eliminated and that will benefit the industry and ensure that it stays healthy.
LCI: Pakistan is one of the most competitive telecom markets in the world, with the lowest prices and margins. However, with so many operators, this will not be sustainable in the long run, therefore consolidation will be healthy from both the operator’s and the customer’s point of view; maintaining the quality we have today requires having margins to both defend and sustain continuous investment.
MF: As portrayed every now and then by industry analysts, consolidation is inevitable. I cannot say whether it will be good for the industry at this stage because it depends on how it happens and the companies involved. The price wars in the past have brought us to a stage where Pakistan’s tariffs are amongst the lowest in the world, which has in turn, also brought down the revenues.
SK: This market is overly competitive; if we compare similar markets worldwide, there isn’t enough room for five active players, so consolidation would benefit the industry. In terms of brands, it is difficult to answer that question because brands are fickle entities and one cannot predict how they will behave in the face of change; once perceptions are formed in people’s mind it is very difficult to alter them. It depends on the kind of merger that will take place; whether it is a merger or an acquisition, what are the objectives of the merging as well as the acquiring company. If the objective is to minimise or to synergise the cost of operations, the brands will follow one path and if the plan is to identify and exploit other marketing opportunities they will follow another path.
SW: Consolidation will be good for the market as it will mean less price competition. But it will also be a challenge because every brand has its own equity; there will be questions about whether you keep two brands or merge them because there is so much equity built up in each brand. On the other hand the real synergy in merging comes when you merge everything – if you keep two brands that will mean two separate companies.
First published in the July-August 2010 issue of Aurora.