Umair Mohsin on the impact of new digital technologies.
It’s sad that at every turn we tend to focus on the negative when this great country really offers endless opportunities amidst all the chaos, if one is focused enough to see the woods for the trees. Because of a lack of legacy infrastructure to burden us, technology and telecom is shaking up the old and ensuring that Pakistan is coming of age in one of the fastest of the new growth industries; digital media and marketing will only go up and up over the next decade.
Let me start by making a bold prediction. Over the next five years, expect 15% of all advertising in Pakistan to shift to digital, interactive, mobile, social and online videos. Bold because currently digital spending is estimated at five million dollars, and if my prediction were to come true, we are looking at an amount hovering in the US$ 40-50 million range; a growth by a factor of 10 in only five years.
It may look like an impossible figure but mobile and social technologies are rapidly evolving the very definition of marketing and commerce in Pakistan. Increasing consumer connectivity (over four million broadband connections by 2013, according to PTA) and the entry of 3G and 4G technologies, cloud computing, mobility and even SMS/WAP based services will quickly bring this prediction about.
A truly connected world will be radically different from the one we currently inhabit and understand. It will be a world where mobile devices and computers will be as prevalent as the air we breathe. It will be a world where social media will compete against mass media and real time ‘now’ will complement the traditional forms of ‘search’. It will be a world where apps will compete against ads, and context will be king.
Cloud, semantics, Android, mash-ups, mobile, social graphs and social spheres, user targeting, HTML5, location based gaming, ad exchanges, path to conversion, 3D, channel interaction, HD video, augmented reality, data visualisation and more will all be present even on the lowly Chinese devices, and all will drive the consumer to different purchase paths than the current models.
Already trends show that consumer preferences are shifting towards the digital landscape. We are watching Indian soaps on YouTube, banking through our mobile phones and ordering groceries online. What will happen when these technologies become embedded in our lives?
We are already witnessing the decline of broadcast business models; newspapers, magazines, TV, music, none command the stature they did in previous decades and as technology progresses they will lose their importance even more. With this will come the end of noise and interruption advertising and the rise of context, relevance and real experiences for brand building. Consumer behaviour will continue to change as technology evolves and permeates even more into our lives, offering more control over the relationships and the experiences we choose to have with brands. With this in mind, the following will be the growth areas in Pakistan over the next few years:
1. The ubiquitous mobile ecosystem
With close to 60 million phones and 90 million SIMs providing the foundation, the next big thing is going to be mobile and it will not only be about phones. It will be about an entire ecosystem built around the mobile; any service, anytime, anywhere, on any screen. Bring in location based services, m-commerce and proximity marketing enabled by a million strong SME sector and it’s a no brainer that mobile-assisted shopping will be integrated into the physical world. M-commerce particularly will become a necessary part of multi-channel retailing and an important component of point of purchase promotions. With this we can also portend the rise of mobile comparison shopping, mobile coupons, mobile affiliates and more SMS services. Add social networks (which are promoted even on Chinese mobiles) and we can easily perceive that social media and social commerce on the mobile device will be a big part of our marketing efforts. For marketers the challenge will be even more platform fragmentation.
2. Digital marketing will be about new possibilitiesDigital marketing will be about connecting information that is otherwise not connected to create new possibilities and experiences. If my own experience in game development is taken as an example, applying game mechanics to the customer journey, particularly product awareness and brand discovery (with different levels, engaging challenges and rewards) is a very effective way to market brands even now, and in the future it will be certain to grow as experiential marketing takes over from traditional activations.
3. TV will still rule but the focus will be on digital
According to a report by the European Interactive Advertising Association (IALS) published in February 2010, the number of hours an average person spends connected to the internet in Spain exceeds that spent watching TV. The study, conducted across five European countries, revealed that people in Spain spent an average of 13.3 hours per week connected to the internet compared to 13 hours in front of the TV. There are differences between the age groups, with younger people spending the most time online, while people over 55 almost exclusively watch TV. A study conducted by Ipsos Reid last autumn found that Canadians are spending more than 18 hours a week online compared with 16.9 hours watching TV. In the UK, according to a report published in September 2009 by the Internet Advertising Bureau (IAB), online has overtaken TV to become the biggest single medium growing to £ 1.75 billion, with the medium accounting for 23.5% of all spend. If the European and Canadian trends are taken as a benchmark, there is going to be a major shift in advertising from being predominantly TV focused. The economic drivers are already compelling marketers to try their hands on digital.
4. Digital will remain a paradox
Digital marketing will remain a paradox for traditional marketers because the way they currently approach digital is flawed by a mindset tuned at providing instant gratification, a one-off mentality and a propensity to constantly chase the next shiny object. Understanding conversations, the loss of control, co-creation and engagement is where the focus has to be.
Digital technologies are changing everything, not because of the speed of access but because they make it possible that what we want is always on. This has changed the experience from being disruptive (for example, switching on the PC to check email) to being embedded (checking email on the phone whilst on the go) and integrated into everything we do. This is the same technology that will power our media and marketing over the next decade, giving us hope and reason that Pakistan will be pulled into the developed world at an extremely fast pace.
Umair Mohsin is Digital Brand Strategist, Tuesday. umair.mohsin@gmail.com
It’s sad that at every turn we tend to focus on the negative when this great country really offers endless opportunities amidst all the chaos, if one is focused enough to see the woods for the trees. Because of a lack of legacy infrastructure to burden us, technology and telecom is shaking up the old and ensuring that Pakistan is coming of age in one of the fastest of the new growth industries; digital media and marketing will only go up and up over the next decade. Let me start by making a bold prediction. Over the next five years, expect 15% of all advertising in Pakistan to shift to digital, interactive, mobile, social and online videos. Bold because currently digital spending is estimated at five million dollars, and if my prediction were to come true, we are looking at an amount hovering in the US$ 40-50 million range; a growth by a factor of 10 in only five years.
It may look like an impossible figure but mobile and social technologies are rapidly evolving the very definition of marketing and commerce in Pakistan. Increasing consumer connectivity (over four million broadband connections by 2013, according to PTA) and the entry of 3G and 4G technologies, cloud computing, mobility and even SMS/WAP based services will quickly bring this prediction about.
A truly connected world will be radically different from the one we currently inhabit and understand. It will be a world where mobile devices and computers will be as prevalent as the air we breathe. It will be a world where social media will compete against mass media and real time ‘now’ will complement the traditional forms of ‘search’. It will be a world where apps will compete against ads, and context will be king.
Cloud, semantics, Android, mash-ups, mobile, social graphs and social spheres, user targeting, HTML5, location based gaming, ad exchanges, path to conversion, 3D, channel interaction, HD video, augmented reality, data visualisation and more will all be present even on the lowly Chinese devices, and all will drive the consumer to different purchase paths than the current models.
Already trends show that consumer preferences are shifting towards the digital landscape. We are watching Indian soaps on YouTube, banking through our mobile phones and ordering groceries online. What will happen when these technologies become embedded in our lives?
We are already witnessing the decline of broadcast business models; newspapers, magazines, TV, music, none command the stature they did in previous decades and as technology progresses they will lose their importance even more. With this will come the end of noise and interruption advertising and the rise of context, relevance and real experiences for brand building. Consumer behaviour will continue to change as technology evolves and permeates even more into our lives, offering more control over the relationships and the experiences we choose to have with brands. With this in mind, the following will be the growth areas in Pakistan over the next few years:
1. The ubiquitous mobile ecosystem
With close to 60 million phones and 90 million SIMs providing the foundation, the next big thing is going to be mobile and it will not only be about phones. It will be about an entire ecosystem built around the mobile; any service, anytime, anywhere, on any screen. Bring in location based services, m-commerce and proximity marketing enabled by a million strong SME sector and it’s a no brainer that mobile-assisted shopping will be integrated into the physical world. M-commerce particularly will become a necessary part of multi-channel retailing and an important component of point of purchase promotions. With this we can also portend the rise of mobile comparison shopping, mobile coupons, mobile affiliates and more SMS services. Add social networks (which are promoted even on Chinese mobiles) and we can easily perceive that social media and social commerce on the mobile device will be a big part of our marketing efforts. For marketers the challenge will be even more platform fragmentation.
2. Digital marketing will be about new possibilitiesDigital marketing will be about connecting information that is otherwise not connected to create new possibilities and experiences. If my own experience in game development is taken as an example, applying game mechanics to the customer journey, particularly product awareness and brand discovery (with different levels, engaging challenges and rewards) is a very effective way to market brands even now, and in the future it will be certain to grow as experiential marketing takes over from traditional activations.
3. TV will still rule but the focus will be on digital
According to a report by the European Interactive Advertising Association (IALS) published in February 2010, the number of hours an average person spends connected to the internet in Spain exceeds that spent watching TV. The study, conducted across five European countries, revealed that people in Spain spent an average of 13.3 hours per week connected to the internet compared to 13 hours in front of the TV. There are differences between the age groups, with younger people spending the most time online, while people over 55 almost exclusively watch TV. A study conducted by Ipsos Reid last autumn found that Canadians are spending more than 18 hours a week online compared with 16.9 hours watching TV. In the UK, according to a report published in September 2009 by the Internet Advertising Bureau (IAB), online has overtaken TV to become the biggest single medium growing to £ 1.75 billion, with the medium accounting for 23.5% of all spend. If the European and Canadian trends are taken as a benchmark, there is going to be a major shift in advertising from being predominantly TV focused. The economic drivers are already compelling marketers to try their hands on digital.
4. Digital will remain a paradox
Digital marketing will remain a paradox for traditional marketers because the way they currently approach digital is flawed by a mindset tuned at providing instant gratification, a one-off mentality and a propensity to constantly chase the next shiny object. Understanding conversations, the loss of control, co-creation and engagement is where the focus has to be.
Digital technologies are changing everything, not because of the speed of access but because they make it possible that what we want is always on. This has changed the experience from being disruptive (for example, switching on the PC to check email) to being embedded (checking email on the phone whilst on the go) and integrated into everything we do. This is the same technology that will power our media and marketing over the next decade, giving us hope and reason that Pakistan will be pulled into the developed world at an extremely fast pace.
Umair Mohsin is Digital Brand Strategist, Tuesday. umair.mohsin@gmail.com
First published in the November-December 2010 issue of Aurora.
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